Presale Condo Worth Less Than Your Contract Price? 3 Options Before You Close

By Sonny Bhinder PREC*
October 18, 2026
7 min read

A condo crash is happening right now, and it will never show up in a single monthly market report. Presale condos bought in 2021 and 2022 are finishing construction, and many are worth 15%, 20% or even 25% less than the price the buyer agreed to pay.

If you hold one of these contracts in Surrey City Centre, Fleetwood, Willoughby, Burnaby or Downtown Vancouver, you have three ways to close it out. None of them is painless, and one is far worse than most people think.

I have spent more than 20 years in this business, and I have never seen a group of buyers walk into a closing date this underwater. So here is how each option works, what the numbers look like, and where the one real opportunity sits.

Why 2021 and 2022 Presale Buyers Are Underwater

Many of these units were bought as investments in 2021 and 2022. They are finishing construction now and over the next two years, and a large number of presale condos across Metro Vancouver are scheduled to complete between now and the end of 2028.

The corridor runs through Surrey City Centre, Fleetwood, Willoughby, Burnaby and Downtown Vancouver. A huge chunk of those units is worth less today than the buyer agreed to pay. That is not a rounding error, because the gap is 15%, 20% and sometimes 25%.

It stays quiet for a simple reason. None of it shows up in the monthly stats, so only the people closing on these units can see it. Meanwhile, they are trying to work out how to close on something worth a quarter less than they promised to pay.

The Three Doors Presale Buyers Have

Option	What it means	What it costs you
1. Close and live in it	You always planned to move in	A paper loss you stop thinking about
2. Close and sell	Register the title, then list it on the MLS	The same loss, plus closing costs
3. Close and rent	Hold it and collect rent	Negative $1,200 to $2,000 a month

Door one: close and live in it. If you always planned to move in, that is absolutely fine. You are buying a home, not a trade. The paper loss stings, but you live there and stop thinking about it.

Door two: close, then sell. Some buyers want out, but the assignment market is dead. So they close, register the title in their own name, and list the unit on the MLS like any resale condo. That is a cleaner sale, but a price is a price. You take the loss either way, just later and with more closing costs on the way through.

Door three: close and rent it out. This is where people get hurt. Unless you put down well over 20% at today’s rents, you will not break even. I have sat with owners who are negative $1,200, $1,500 and even $2,000 a month on a unit they bought as an investment. That is not investing. It is a monthly subscription to a hope.

How Long Could a Recovery Take?

Owners always ask how long they have to hold to get back what they paid. I will not sugarcoat it. On some of these units, we are talking about a decade, maybe more.

Here is the part most people miss. You did not buy at the resale peak, but at the presale peak. That is a different and higher number, because you paid a premium for something new. So you are not waiting for the market to recover. Instead, you are waiting for it to recover and then climb past where it already was.

Why Assigning Your Presale Is Close to Impossible

A few years ago, we put assignment deals together all the time. Now it is close to impossible, and there are two reasons why.

First, the GST relief. The federal government took GST off qualifying new homes for eligible buyers. That buyer can walk into a developer’s sales centre, buy a finished unit and get the tax relief. On top of that, the developer adds incentives like appliance packages and decorating dollars, and can buy down the rate. So how does your assignment compete? It does not. Here is how the first-time home buyer GST rebate works.

Second, the BC layer. An assignment needs the developer’s consent, there is usually a fee, and the assignment gets reported. Depending on your timeline, the BC home flipping tax can also apply, up to 20% of the gain. Talk to your accountant about that one, because I am not one.

Even if you find a buyer, you will likely lose your whole deposit and write a cheque on top. Say you signed at $700 per square foot and the assignment sells at $550. That gap does not disappear because someone showed up. Somebody has to fund it, and that somebody is you.

What Happens If You Do Not Close

I am not telling you to walk away, and I am not a lawyer. This is not legal advice. If you are anywhere near this situation, talk to a real estate lawyer this week, not next month.

But people are walking away, so here is what usually comes next. You signed a binding contract, and the developer keeps your deposit. Then the developer resells the unit if you do not complete, and it sells for less. They can come after you for the difference, your other assets and your other properties.

That is the part nobody pictures when they say, “I will just walk away.” For the legal side, read why walking away costs more than your deposit.

“Close it and bleed monthly, assign it and eat the gap, or walk and roll the dice.”

What Developers Are Doing Behind the Scenes

Now flip it to the other side of the table. Developers are focused on one thing right now, which is clearing the standing inventory. The construction loan is due, and they need those last 30 units gone. So the incentives are aggressive.

You are also seeing bulk sales. A fund or a rental operator buys 20, 40 or 50 units at a discounted price per square foot, sometimes with a non-disclosure agreement so nobody talks about the numbers. Some projects are even being converted to purpose-built rentals.

These deals never touch the MLS, so they are not in any monthly report. That is why a headline saying condo prices are down 8% or 10% can mislead. The real numbers inside some buildings are well below that, and you will never see them. For more on this, see why the Vancouver condo market is not at the bottom yet.

The Opportunity: Buy Finished, Not Presale

If you are a buyer today, you can walk into a finished building, negotiate real concessions and take the tax relief if you qualify. Then you move in next month, not in four years.

Normally you buy new, wait three or four years, and pay a premium for the privilege. Right now that premium is gone, and in some buildings it is totally inverted.

Not every building and not every unit works, of course. A lot of what is left did not sell for a reason, like the north-facing one-bedroom over the parkade. But the good units that come back because someone could not close are real deals, and those are the ones we chase. If you want one, call or text me at 778-234-2000, and I will look for them in specific buildings.

What to Do Now, Depending on Where You Stand

If you are closing on a presale, get your financing reviewed now, not 60 days out. If it is not appraising, you want to know today, while you still have options.

If you are selling, remember that you are competing with a developer who has a tax advantage and a deadline. And if you are buying or investing with real money down and a five-year horizon, this is the window people will call obvious in 2030. It does not feel obvious right now.

Whichever spot you are in, call me. It is a free consultation with no pressure and no pitch. We will look at your actual contract and your actual numbers, and I will tell you straight what your options are, even if the answer is to do nothing.